Table 2

Table 2. Granger Exogeneity F-Tests for Institutional Attention to Foreign Policy Issues, by Administration

Reagan

Bush

Clinton

Independent Variable

Aid

Trade

Central America

Carib.

Aid

Trade

Central America

Carib.

Trade

Central America

Carib.

Dependent Variable

President

6.93***

5.27***

1.48

0.14

2.22

2.31*

4.68***

0.64

33.91***

0.25

3.34**

Media

4.45**

11.64***

2.44**

1.65

6.04***

6.68***

4.42***

0.42

6.80***

10.74***

7.42***

Media

Congress

0.849

0.063

1.68*

0.27

0.960

2.45*

6.36***

0.26

1.93

0.75

0.76

Events

N/A

3.61***

4.50***

N/A

4.03***

3.41***

N/A

2.61**

2.39**

President

2.14

0.569

2.69*

6.13***

0.643

3.98**

0.84

0.33

2.13

0.77

4.15***

Media

0.924

4.13**

3.23**

2.57**

0.092

0.035

1.71*

6.81***

3.25**

2.93**

1.39

Congress

8.81***

7.35***

1.33

2.55**

16.24***

7.82***

7.55***

0.99

11.65***

1.75*

0.71

Events

N/A

4.27***

2.01**

N/A

4.01***

2.17**

N/A

1.04

2.12**

President

9.67***

4.79***

5.62***

0.44

0.231

2.53*

3.99***

0.45

28.89***

0.32

6.99***

Media

0.131

0.571

0.87

2.51**

0.633

0.655

5.99***

0.66

3.42**

0.34

8.86***

President

Congress

0.167

0.449

2.56**

0.78

6.18***

1.74

2.45**

2.69**

0.233

2.83**

2.58**

Events

N/A

2.65**

3.43***

N/A

4.47***

2.31**

N/A

1.57

2.91***

Note: ***p< .01, **p< .05, *p< .1. The cells contain F statistics. Events at lag 0 are included as an exogenous variable to control for the contemporaneous effects of events for Central America and the Caribbean. The N is 520 for the Aid series (1/84-12/93), and 624 for the Trade series (1/84-12/95), 591 for the Central America and Caribbean series (1/84-4/95). The Aid and Trade VARs contain 4 lags. The Central America and Caribbean VARs contain 5 and 7 lags respectively. The values for Events are T-Statistics.