Michigan is Ground Zero,
and both candidates know it

BY PATRICIA MONTEMURRI
FREE PRESS STAFF WRITER

What do Al Gore, Charlton Heston, Jesse Jackson, Lee Iacocca, and George W., Laura and Barbara Bush all agree upon?

That Michigan is a really big deal right now. The candidates, their wives, mothers, and pals are here this week, as post-debate spin control ebbs and political ground control overtakes Michigan with 20 days left to Election Day.

"Michigan is ground zero now. You can't win the White House without winning Michigan," Sage Eastman, Michigan GOP spokesman, said Tuesday.

"We realize that the midwest--and particularly states like Michigan--will determine the winner of this election," said Moe Harwick, Gore's regional communications director. "Naturally, you'll see a lot of Republicans, Democrats, and their supporters there over the next few weeks.

Democratic nominee Gore is to campaign in Flint tonight; Texas Gov. Bush is to visit a Macomb County factory Thursday. This week's visits will be the seventh to the state for each candidate since August, with more expected by Nov. 7.

[Complete listing of previous Gore and Bush visits to Michigan.]

After last night's final presidential debate, held in St. Louis, the candidates now begin the final stretch run to election day. The debate, which many thought was a draw, was voters' last chance to see the candidates debate directly on the issues.

[View the complete transcript of the debate from voter.org.]

Michigan played prominently in the second debate, held last week in North Carolina, as both candidates made an effort to mention the state by name several times [see examples].

Michigan ranks as a top-tier campaign battleground, and its 18 electoral votes are a must-win factor in either candidate's calculations. Polls taken last week in Michigan showed the presidential race a virtual dead heat.

Spending time in a key state gives candidates and their supporters a chance to directly influence a vote with a handshake or a word -- and, more important, a shot at free air time and space on television, radio and in newspapers to deliver their message.

"We've got either the candidates, their running mates, or a surrogate virtually every day over the next three weeks," said John Truscott, spokesman for Gov. John Engler, Bush's most prominent surrogate in Michigan. "Everybody nationally is saying that it could easily come down to Michigan being the key pivotal state in the race."

Bush's wife, Laura, his mother, Barbara, and other GOP female luminaries will tour Michigan today on the "W. Stands for Women" bandwagon, seeking to erase Gore's advantage with female voters.

For Republicans, other surrogates include former auto executive Lee Iacocca touting Bush at a luncheon today in Troy, and Tuesday's visit by National Rifle Association President and movie-Moses Charlton Heston.

For the Democrats, the Rev. Jesse Jackson is seeking to mobilize black voters for the Gore ticket Thursday at Detroit's King High School, and Energy Secretary Bill Richardson will do the same at an Arab-American Chamber of Commerce dinner Friday in Livonia.

Underscoring the state's must-win importance, Gore backers spent nearly $3 million on television advertising in Michigan for the two weeks ending Oct. 8, compared to about $1 million spent by Bush supporters, according to a study by New York University and the University of Wisconsin. The pro-Gore message was bolstered by spending from advocacy groups such as Planned Parenthood, Handgun Control and labor unions.

More money for pro-Gore ads was spent in Michigan than in the other key battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri and Wisconsin.

"I know that the Republicans have a lot of money that they're going to spend, and our challenge is to make sure we continue to get our message out there," said Debbie Dingell, a Gore campaign co-chairwoman in Michigan.

Already, Michigan viewers are inundated with campaign ads. Joe Berwanger, WDIV-TV (Channel 4) vice president and general manager in Detroit, said stations across Michigan are besieged with campaign-related commercials, as are stations in other heavily-contested Midwest states.

Why is Michigan so important?

Michigan is one of several midwest "Swing States" that will determine the outcome of the election. Voter.com has an analysis of Michigan's importance to the election.

Electoral scenarios at CNN.com show ways that Bush or Gore could win the White House.

Michigan's electoral history: see how the state has voted in past presidential elections.

Who's here and when?

A complete listing of current Bush and Gore scheduled visits to Michigan.

Other scheduled Republican and Democrat campaign visits to Michigan.

Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan campaign stops in Michigan.

Electoral maps at ABC News and CNN show how the fifty states are currently leaning.

What is the electoral college and how does it work? Allpolitics.com offers a history and explanation.

See examples of ads currently running in Michigan at videoweb.com.

Politics Insider's "Truth Squad" analyzes the claims made in presidential TV ads.